Montag, 23. Juli 2012

Ten Italian Cities On Verge Of Financial Collapse

The "Blacklist" - Ten Italian Cities On Verge Of Financial Collapse



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Last week when we wrote about the imminent default of Sicily which Mario Monti tried to sweep under the rug by demanding the local governor resign for not masking the situation with lies, and doing all he can to prevent the advent of reality, we noted, rather sarcastically, that the "resignation of Sicily Governor Lombardo will somehow allow all those who care about the fundamentals of Italy to stick their heads in the sand... at least until Sicily is followed by Calabria, Campania, Lazio, Abruzzo, Tuscany, Lombardy, Umbria, Liguria, Veneto and so on. At least the governors of those respective provinces now have an advance warning what the endgame is." Sure enough, now that this particular floodgate has also been opened, it is only fitting that in the aftermath of this weekend's main news that a total of 6 Spanish regions will demand bailouts, that Italy follow suit with its own blacklist, and as La Stampa has reported, there are now ten major Italian cities at risk of an imminent financial collapse, yet another factor pushing Italian yields well on their way to the country's own 7% rubicon, now at 6.34%.

From La Stampa, google translated:
There are ten major Italian cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants, who are a step away from the crash.

Naples and Palermo at the top of the "black list", although a task force for weeks at Palazzo Chigi is doing everything possible to avoid the worst.

Then Reggio Calabria, finished in red already in 2007-2008 and is now being investigated by the judiciary. And then so many other governments, large and small (like Milazzo), perhaps far virtuous, could be forced to ask for the "collapse", which means dissolution
of the council, entrance of the Court of Auditors and prefectural commissioner.

The last shot, or if you want the coup de grace, it is to come: it is a provision inserted in the decree on the spending review that in the folds of the new rules that impose the "harmonization of accounting systems and financial statements" requires to devalue the 25% of the residual assets accumulated to date. These revenues accounted for but not yet cashed, as may be the proceeds of fines and waste tax.

Key figures, which serve to "make" the budget of an institution that often, in practice, these voices swells while knowing they will not be able to collect 100% of the amounts to be budgeted. Proceeds often very short questions, which now can no longer serve to make ends meet.

"At risk are at least a dozen large cities' trust in the government technicians who are monitoring the situation.

"The situation is becoming more difficult every day," confirms the president of ANCI Graziano Del Rio. Pointing the finger at yet another cut in transfers, against the measures introduced by the spending review, and that raises the alarm of many fellow mayors. "
Because he who defaults first, always defaults best... and first.

Samstag, 30. Juni 2012

das sieht nicht gut aus für/in Italien....


Posted: 29 Jun 2012 04:11 PM PDT
The latest economic indicators coming out of Italy are just awful. The recession is getting far worse than most economists had predicted. That's part of the reason Monti has been pushing so hard to get the ESM and the ECB to buy Italy's debt. With such a deep recession engulfing the nation, the fiscal situation can't be good. Here are the latest economic figures.

As Italy's industries slow dramatically (see Industrial Production below) and unemployment hits 10%, the consumer begins to struggle.

Italy Industrial Production (YOY)

What's particularly troublesome is that Italy's inflation remains stubbornly high.

Italy CPI (YOY)

And high unemployment mixed with relatively high inflation has pushed Italy's misery index to new recent highs.

Italy Misery Index 

This trend has played havoc with Italy's consumer sentiment. The index of consumer confidence is now sharply below the lows of 2008.

Italy Consumer Confidence Index

This decline in confidence is now translating into a record drop in retail sales. Retail sales numbers tend to be volatile, but this last decline clearly stands out (below). And that coupled with higher taxes and increased austerity measures will do more damage to industrial production and employment ....

Italy Retail Sales YOY

Unfortunately at this stage there is nothing that Monti's government can do to give Italian consumers an immediate boost. The ECB who is clearly going to cut rates next week can also do little to ease tight credit conditions in Italy. There is only one thing that could (at least temporarily) boost the morale of Italian households. Italy needs to win the EURO 2012 soccer championship. So if you choose to watch the finals on Sunday, root for Italy - they need this victory even more than Spain.


Samstag, 23. Juni 2012

Schuldenkrise Weidmann: Monti höhlt die Währungsunion aus

Schuldenkrise Weidmann: Monti höhlt die Währungsunion aus

23.06.2012 · Ginge es nach Italiens Ministerpräsident Mario Monti, sollten künftig die Euro-Rettungsfonds Staatsanleihen von strauchelnden europäischen Ländern aufkaufen, um deren Finanzierungskosten ohne Sparauflagen zu senken. Der Vorstoß stößt in Deutschland auf wenig Gegenliebe: „Staatsfinanzierung durch die Notenpresse“, schimpft Bundesbankchef Jens Weidmann.
Bundesbankchef Jens Weidmann weist die Forderung des italienischen Ministerpräsidenten Mario Monti zurück, das Land solle indirekt Milliarden aus den Euro-Rettungsschirmen erhalten, ohne die vorgesehenen Auflagen erfüllen zu müssen. „Der Vorschlag Montis läuft auf eine durch die EU-Verträge verbotene Staatsfinanzierung durch die Notenpresse hinaus“, sagte Weidmann der „Süddeutschen Zeitung“ (Samstagausgabe).
Monti hatte in dieser Woche vorgeschlagen, dass die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) im Auftrag des Rettungsschirms Staatsanleihen gestresster Länder wie Italien und Spanien aufkauft, wodurch deren Finanzierungskosten sinken würden. Der Rettungsschirm soll der EZB dafür teilweise Garantien geben, Italien blieben aber Spar- und Reformauflagen erspart.
Weidmann, der dem EZB-Rat angehört, kritisierte, nach den Plänen Montis solle die Geldpolitik eingespannt werden, um die Finanzierungskosten der Mitgliedsländer zu begrenzen und Marktmechanismen weitgehend auszuschalten. „Damit würde eine weitgehende Gemeinschaftshaftung eingeführt und der Ordnungsrahmen ausgehöhlt“, sagte Weidmann.
Auch die Bundesregierung lehnt Montis Vorstoß ab: Schon am Mittwoch verwies sie auf die geltende Rechtslage, nach der dem Europäischen Stabilitätsmechanismus ESM als auch dem Europäischen Stabilitätsfonds EFSF zwar grundsätzlich erlaubt ist, Staatsanleihen der Euro-Staaten zu kaufen, dies aber an dann auszuhandelnde Auflagen geknüpft wird. Sie lehnt eine Änderung dieser Konditionalität ab.
 

Donnerstag, 14. Juni 2012

Major Italian Bank Freezes All Customer Accounts


Major Italian Bank Freezes All Customer Accounts

  Posted by - June 11, 2012 at 5:47 pm - Permalink - Source via Alexander Higgins Blog
Italian Bank Freezes All Accounts For 1 Month


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‘Financial difficulties’ force Bank Network Investments SpA (BNI) to begin a Bank Of Italy authorized freeze on all customer accounts.

On May 31st Bank Network Investments discretely posted an announcement on their website that they would be freezing all of their customers accounts for 1 month freeze on citing financial difficulties.
The announcement was posted and the bank gave customers 7 days to act before the Bank of Italy approved freeze went into effect.

The bank’s customers are saying they were completely unaware of the notice being posted and are just now finding out about it when they go to the bank or the ATM for the first time.
The media certainly hasn’t reported on it and news of the freeze is only now starting to make its way around the internet after a complaint was posted on the popular Italian consumer rights website Adiconsum along with a photo of a shutdown ATM.
The freezing of the customer’s deposits, in a nation that apparently doesn’t have a mechanism like the FDIC to insure customer deposits against losses, has sent a shockwaves of terror across Italy raising fears that other customers will lose their deposits entirely.
In turn speculation is growing that other banks in Italy and across Europe may soon suffer the same fate as Europe officials announce they are planning ATM and Bank withdrawal restrictions to deal with a Greece exits from the Euro.
A Google News search  shows no corporate news reports on the web.
Google web search shows only a series of blogs and forums discussing the story that I am reporting on now.
ZaZoom reports:  (auto translated from Italian)

BNI: Bank Investment Network is down

Home page of the bank (http://www.bancanetwork.it/) is reported out its slogan “A bank efficiently, always by your side.” But since this morning its customers are left to their fate, without any ability to access and use their own money.
Network Investment Bank, with a statement stiminzito decided and announced the suspension of any form of withdrawal and payment of money, with a notice of 7 days that unfortunately not all customers have had the opportunity and time to read (http://www. bancanetwork.it / content / suspension-of-payments).
The institute, in receivership since last November, announced that on May 31, the commissioners, “with the approval of the Monitoring Committee and with the approval of the Bank of Italy, have decided to suspend the payment of liabilities of any kind ‘for a month.
To the rescue – in the few lines we read online – have stepped forward and the group Sim Consultinvest Savings Bank of Ravenna, but in the meantime, depositors are furious.
Source: ZaZoom
A policeman in Milan sums up the situation:
Massimo, policeman in Milan speaks for all: when I went to pay the mechanic office for my car the bancomat did not work, nor was I able to make a transfer. Actually, they took all my money away. Now I have 20€ in my wallet, a wife and two daughters, what am I going to do? My account is also where my salary goes to, so what now?
http://the2012scenario.com/2012/06/more-on-closure-of-bni-italy/bancomat/
An English translation of the suspension announcement posted on the Banks website.

Suspension of Payments

On 31 May 2012, the Special Commissioners of Bank Network Investments SpA in Extraordinary Administration (MI), with the approval of the Supervisory Committee and with the approval of the Bank of Italy, have decided to suspend the payment of liabilities of any kind, pursuant to art. 74 of Leg. September 1, 1993. 385 (TUB), for the period of one month.
The suspension does not include client financial instruments.
The measure was necessary to face the difficult situation of the bank.
Organs extraordinary Bank Network Investments SpA, an intermediary member of the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund, are developing a plan for solving the crisis in order to safeguard clients’ rights, provides for the intervention of Consultinvest SIM Group and Bank Savings of Ravenna.
Mediterranean News (Italian) reports how the banks customer’s feel as if they have had their money stolen from them.
BNI Blocks Customer Accounts
BNI Blocks Customer Accounts
Investment Watchdog reports:

Mittwoch, 13. Juni 2012

Europe's bond vigilantes (otherwise known as portfolio managers executing some level of due diligence to cover their fiduciary duty) have rotated their attention to Italy.

Italian Bonds Back In The Crosshairs

Tyler Durden's picture




10Y Italian bond spreads are surging wider intraday as it appears Europe's bond vigilantes (otherwise known as portfolio managers executing some level of due diligence to cover their fiduciary duty) have rotated their attention to Italy. After a few days in a row of Italian bank stock halts, the implicit LTRO-driven relationship between banks and sovereign is snapping 10Y yields above their Aug 2011 crisis peaks - at almost 5 month highs. A 20bps jump from the intraday lows this morning in spreads, underperforming any other European sovereign, seems to reflect our earlier concerns of Italy's lifeline running short. 5Y CDS are also pushing higher - near record wides but do not forget Spain which is also now legging higher in yield and wider in spread after some relief earlier in the day.
Italy is rather notably underperforming its peers intraday...

as 10Y Spanish yields and spreads are re-accelerating higher - notably back above the August 2011 crisis peak of last year...

Charts: Bloomberg

Dienstag, 12. Juni 2012

Am Nachmittag lag die Rendite zehnjähriger Staatsanleihen aus Italien bei 6,158 Prozent und damit rund einen halben Prozentpunkt höher als Anfang Mai.


Schuldenkrise Italien gerät wieder stärker in den Fokus der Märkte

12.06.2012 ·  Am zweiten Börsentag nach dem Rettungspaket für Spanien steigen die Zinsen - nicht nur für Spanien, sondern auch für Italien. Eine italienische Zeitung ruft: „Schnell, Frau Merkel“
Von Tobias Piller, Rom und Christian Hiller von Gaertringen
Die Furcht, dass die europäische Schuldenkrise auf Italien übergreifen könnte, hat am Dienstag die internationalen Finanzmärkte erfasst. Am Nachmittag lag die Rendite zehnjähriger Staatsanleihen aus Italien bei 6,158 Prozent und damit rund einen halben Prozentpunkt höher als Anfang Mai. Die Rendite spanischer Staatsanleihen mit zehnjähriger Restlaufzeit betrug vorübergehend bis zu 6,8 Prozent. Die Rendite zehnjähriger Bundesanleihen erhöhte sich auf 1,4 Prozent.
Nachdem am Montag Analysten und vor allem angelsächsische Nachrichtenagenturen die wirtschaftlichen Schwächen Italiens wieder zu entdecken schienen, reagierte die italienische Wirtschaftszeitung „Il Sole 24 Ore“ mit einer ungewöhnlichen Aufmachung: Die seriöse Zeitung gestaltete am Dienstag ihre erste Seite mit Lettern, die sonst nur die deutsche Boulevardpresse benutzt, und schrieb die deutschen Worte: „Schnell, Frau Merkel.“ Darunter argumentiert der Chefredakteur Roberto Napolitano, dass es allein in der deutschen Verantwortung liege, Europa zu retten, mit einer allgemeinen Schuldengarantie, und einer gemeinschaftlichen Garantie für alle Bankschulden in Europa.
Andererseits teilte die Ratingagentur Fitch mit, für Italien gebe es keine akuten Finanzierungsprobleme. Die Banken seien stabil und das Defizit tendiere gegen Null. Für Italien bietet dieses Urteil Anlass zu etwas Aufatmen. Ansonsten hatten die Italiener die Ratingagenturen mit zunehmender Skepsis betrachtet. Der Vizechef der italienischen Notenbank, Fabrizio Saccomanni, sagte, eigentlich sollten die Ratingagenturen die Kreditwürdigkeit beurteilen. Darüber hinaus könne sich jeder sein eigenes Szenario zurechtlegen.
Nur als vor wenigen Tagen die Agentur Moody’s warnte, alle europäischen Staaten, auch Deutschland, riskierten eine Abwertung ihrer Kreditwürdigkeitsbenotung, war dies italienischen Medien und Kommentatoren Anlass für Schadenfreude und ein Beweis für die Notwendigkeit, alle Schulden zusammenzulegen.

Italien will sich im Juni 19,2 Milliarden Euro leihen

Im laufenden Monat werde Italien Mittel von 19,2 Milliarden Euro aufnehmen wollen, heißt es in einer Studie der britischen Bank Barclays Capital. Der Schwerpunkt werde mit 8,2 Milliarden Euro im Laufzeitenbereich zwischen vier und fünf Jahren liegen. Die Rendite für fünfjährige italienische Staatsanleihen betrug am Dienstag rund 5,6 Prozent.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/schuldenkrise-italien-geraet-wieder-staerker-in-den-fokus-der-maerkte-11783201.html

Freitag, 27. April 2012

Italien will Schuldengarantie Eine Garantie für alle Staatsschulden in der Währungsunion durch die Europäische Zentralbank verlangt die Mehrheit des italienischen Parlaments in einer Entschließung.

Italien will Schuldengarantie Eine Garantie für alle Staatsschulden in der Währungsunion durch die Europäische Zentralbank verlangt die Mehrheit des italienischen Parlaments in einer Entschließung.

Italien will Schuldengarantie
Eine Garantie für alle Staatsschulden in
der Währungsunion durch die Europäische
Zentralbank verlangt die Mehrheit
des italienischen Parlaments in einer Entschließung.

Die Regierung von Ministerpräsident
Mario Monti wird aufgefordert,
entsprechende Änderungen an den
europäischen Vertragstexten anzustreben.
Bisher wird in den Verträgen eine Finanzierung
von Mitgliedstaaten durch
die Zentralbank strikt ausgeschlossen. In
Italien war die Zentralbank bis zu Beginn
der achtziger Jahre Garant für die
Staatsschulden und gesetzlich zum Kauf
von allen Staatstiteln verpflichtet, die
bei Auktionen nicht abgesetzt werden
konnten. Die Inflationsrate stieg auch
deswegen bis 1980 auf 21 Prozent.
tp.

FAZ Sa 28.4.2012 S 12

Italy Sells 4, 5, 7 And 10 Year Bonds: Yields Jump, Bids to Cover Slump: Market Commentary

Italy Sells 4, 5, 7 And 10 Year Bonds: Yields Jump, Bids to Cover Slump: Market Commentary

Tyler Durden's picture




While Europe is still keeping up a facade that all is well in the aftermath of the Spanish downgrade, but far more importantly its sheer economic collapse as noted earlier, just so Italy could price €4.916 billion in two On The Run 5 and 10 year bond issues (compared to a target of €5 billion), the tension is there, as can be seen in a decidedly week Italian bond auction, which saw yields soar, Bids to Cover slide, and tails spike. Italy also sold less than the maximum in off the run 2016 and 2019 bonds. All in all, while the market may experience a brief recovery rally that Italy managed to sell anything at all (that was not a Bill of course - that gimmick always does the trick), the reality that these yields are not sustainable will slowly seep in within a few hours.
To wit, Italy sold:
  • €2.5 billion of 5.5% 2022 bonds at a yield  of 5.84%, a whopping tail to the trading price of 5.74%, much higher compared to the March 29 auction of 5.24%, and a weaker Bid to Cover of 1.48 compared to 1.65 before.
  • €2.42 billion of 4.75% 2017 bonds at a yield of 4.86%, also much higher compared to the March 29 auction of 4.18%, and a far weaker Bid to Cover of 1.34 compared to 1.65 before.
Also, the country sold €1.03 billion in Off The Run 2016 and 2019 bonds, well less than the target size of €1.25 billion, as follows:
  • €537mln of 2019 bonds at yield of 5.21%
  • €493mln of 2016 bonds at yield of 4.29%
So... bonds that are just out of the LTRO's maturity are yielding 4.3%? And that for the fulcrum country of Italy? And there are still those who think the ECB will not do many many more indirect and direct monetizations...
The immediate spin is as follows, via Reuters, which apparently focuses that the debt sold at all, as opposed to such actual fundamentals as unsustainable yield, sliding bid to cover, and, oh yeah, a 10 basis point tail. But who needs fundamentals when one has the central planners such as the BOJ injecting random trillions into the market at a whim.
ACHILLEAS GEORGOLOPOULOS, STRATEGIST, LLOYDS BANK, LONDON
"It looks better than the market expected because there were quite a few negative comments coming after the Spanish downgrade."
"The 5.9 (billion euros) number is pleasing the market for now. Any number below five would have created a bit of a problem for them."
"In this environment, domestic banks are probably supporting the auction and that has been a feature for Italy since the start of this year."
MICHAEL LEISTER, RATE STRATEGIST, DZ BANK, FRANKFURT
"Overall the figures look okay, a decent auction. The bid/covers don't look great but they are in line with the averages so far this year. Volumes seem alright and both issues are overbid compared with secondary market levels.
"To sum up, at least no further bad news, nothing to provide further fuel to the sell-off we have had in periphery paper this morning."
RICHARD MCGUIRE, STRATEGIST, RABOBANK, LONDON
The auction was "reassuring in that any fears of a very poor outcome were misplaced. However, these acceptable results certainly came at a price which, in turn, leaves a question mark over how long Italy will be able to finance itself at levels that can be deemed sustainable."
MARC OSTWALD, RATE STRATEGIST, MONUMENT SECURITIES, LONDON
"The issue was always going to be how close to the top of their target would they sell. At 5.95 billion (euros) they are very close to what was a very wide band, which is great."
"The cover is fine but it's not amazing. It never is for Italy. The more impressive part was where the selling yields were struck relative to where the secondary market was at the closing time of the auction. With the exception of the '19s, everything was sold four to six basis points below market levels so it was bid up which was very encouraging."
"But ultimately we are selling at the highs of recent months...What the whole thing tells is domestic demand remains strong...That was always going to help this sale."